Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xddfc…cd9e sports 596 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$506 (+5%) realized +$527 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate59%347W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$846
14 days+$454
30 days+$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$373
other 2% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -2.9% -12.2% 55% 48% +5.0%
≤30d 593 -10.8% -19.3% 59% 34% -5.5%
≤90d 593 -10.8% -19.3% 59% 34% -5.5%
all 593 -10.8% -19.3% 59% 34% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 34% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 28% -14.6%
15% -34.1% 20% -22.8%
20% -40.5% 16% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$527
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses347 / 246
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions3
Markets (closed)593 / 596
History coverage27d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 50¢ 38¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Under 52¢ 76¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+47%)
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 33¢ 57¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+74%)
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs San Diego Padres 75¢ 42¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees Jun 30 $36 +$3 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $81 +$69 +85%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +10%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $27 +$38 +140%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $49 +$67 +136%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 28 $35 +$81 +231%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $9 +$3 +34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 28 $6 +$7 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 28 $21 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $66 +$62 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 28 $13 +$8 +58%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $55 −$54 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $25 +$1 +5%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $60 +$5 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $60 +$28 +47%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 27 $5 $0 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 27 $16 +$2 +10%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 27 $34 −$34 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 27 $6 +$9 +152%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5) Jun 27 $5 +$1 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $4 +$2 +42%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $46 +$37 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $9 −$9 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $4 −$3 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $45 +$28 +62%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 27 $61 +$143 +233%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $29 +$14 +48%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $49 +$9 +18%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 27 $35 +$12 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $4 +$1 +32%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 27 $15 −$5 -36%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 27 $60 +$25 +42%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 27 $3 +$2 +57%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 27 $4 +$1 +38%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $52 −$51 -97%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 40m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 68¢ $47 45m
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $54 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 33¢ $14 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Diego Padres 75¢ $13 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees BUY Detroit Tigers 92¢ $36 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 58¢ $8 24h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 91¢ $5 24h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $17 26h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $5 26h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $51 27h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $40 29h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $102 29h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 36¢ $20 30h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 41¢ $27 30h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 74¢ $9 30h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $9 30h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Houston Astros 24¢ $15 31h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Seattle Mariners 85¢ $12 31h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $6 32h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 42¢ $21 32h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $17 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $49 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 64¢ $8 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $5 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 21¢ $1 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 30¢ $4 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 30¢ $50 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $25 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 91¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.20 · official $149.20 (match) · 1686 history records