Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DD 0xddfd…8cfa other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL +$47 (+14%) realized +$47 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%3W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day30.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-5.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+4.4%	-5.6%	27%	27%	-19.6%
≤30d	11	+4.4%	-5.6%	27%	27%	-19.6%
≤90d	11	+4.4%	-5.6%	27%	27%	-19.6%
all	11	+4.4%	-5.6%	27%	27%	-19.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-5.6%	27%	-19.6%
10% ← realistic here	-14.6%	27%	-27.3%
15%	-22.8%	27%	-34.3%
20%	-30.4%	27%	-40.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$14 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$16

Realized+$47

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses3 / 8

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day30.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	37¢	38¢	$16	$16	+$0 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 24	$169	−$60	-36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$15	−$4	-28%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 24	$19	−$6	-33%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 24	$18	+$46	+248%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$13	+$7	+51%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 24	$10	−$9	-88%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	Jun 24	$10	−$1	-6%
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 24	$16	−$6	-40%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 23	$10	−$3	-28%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$20	+$22	+107%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$21	−$21	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	6¢	$4	44m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$4	48m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$15	57m
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	49¢	$98	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	48¢	$11	1h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	SELL Yes	10¢	$13	1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$68	1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$15	1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	21¢	$21	2h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	14¢	$19	2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$15	2h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	SELL Yes	100¢	$64	3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	3h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	33¢	$9	4h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	SELL Yes	11¢	$10	4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	24¢	$9	4h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia?	SELL Yes	2¢	$9	4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	37¢	$14	5h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	10¢	$7	5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	5h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	5h
Exact Score: Panama 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	4¢	$16	5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	65¢	$13	5h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	5h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	SELL Yes	100¢	$42	6h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	6¢	$21	9h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	34¢	$2	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.22 · official $16.22 (match) · 31 history records