Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde01…a938 weather 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$468 (-4%) realized −$468 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%42W / 129L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$315
7 days+$299
14 days+$282
30 days−$1,279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$1,269
other 37% +$258
weather 10% −$461
world 6% +$782
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +50.0% +35.7% 53% 53% +13.3%
≤30d 149 -27.0% -33.9% 23% 22% -26.9%
≤90d 167 -20.9% -28.4% 25% 24% -13.5%
all 171 -21.7% -29.2% 25% 23% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 23% -15.1%
10% -36.0% 20% -23.2%
15% -42.1% 16% -30.6%
20% -47.8% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$33 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$468
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses42 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage195d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $71 −$13 -19%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 +$31 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $98 +$29 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$51 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $107 +$113 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $128 −$1 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $136 −$123 -90%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $161 −$25 -16%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $11 +$61 +549%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 4? Jun 12 $7 −$5 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 04 $2 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun Jun 04 $2 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 04 $0 $0 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 −$6 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$5 -90%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 3? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 03 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 03 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 03 $7 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$4 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 2? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 2? Jun 03 $14 −$11 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $37 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 50¢ $57 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $71 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $153 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $122 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $127 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $98 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $70 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $107 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $28 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 2¢ $13 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $136 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $136 29h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 5? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL Yes 20¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on Jun SELL No 24¢ $2 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $161 13d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 4? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.55 · official $35.55 (match) · 745 history records