Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

DE 0xde02…b7a6 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,174 (-18%) realized −$2,161 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate82%14W / 3L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$596per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$411

7 days+$152

14 days+$152

30 days+$152

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)-5.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-5.2%	-14.2%	50%	50%	+9.6%
≤30d	2	-5.2%	-14.2%	50%	50%	+9.6%
≤90d	2	-5.2%	-14.2%	50%	50%	+9.6%
all	17	+4.5%	-5.4%	82%	65%	-26.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.4%	65%	-26.8%
10%	-14.5%	41%	-33.8%
15%	-22.7%	18%	-40.2%
20%	-30.3%	12%	-46.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

21% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$650) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$124 vs −$1,303 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.44 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage

Net worth$448

Realized−$2,161

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)82%

Wins / losses14 / 3

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage522d

Avg bet$596

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$300	$290	−$10 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Japan	27¢	26¢	$61	$60	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 29	$459	+$411	+90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$264	−$259	-98%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?	Jul 30	$529	+$41	+8%
Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run before July?	Jul 02	$500	+$186	+37%
Trump declassifies Diddy list?	May 03	$99	+$22	+22%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?	May 03	$919	+$18	+2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?	Apr 04	$3,000	−$3,000	-100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31?	Apr 01	$614	+$155	+25%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31?	Apr 01	$1,194	+$314	+26%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	Apr 01	$1,642	+$262	+16%
Will Elon be worth $500b before March?	Mar 03	$100	+$27	+27%
Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14?	Feb 15	$650	−$650	-100%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday?	Feb 08	$247	+$40	+16%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7?	Feb 08	$400	+$90	+23%
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday?	Feb 06	$150	+$97	+65%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?	Jan 28	$487	+$42	+9%
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24?	Jan 24	$200	+$24	+12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	45¢	$102	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	27¢	$62	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$102	2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	43¢	$203	2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	52¢	$459	15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	39¢	$264	3d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?	SELL No	83¢	$570	333d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?	BUY No	98¢	$919	451d
Will Kamala Harris announce California Governor run before July?	BUY No	73¢	$500	451d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY No	60¢	$3,000	451d
Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14?	BUY Yes	44¢	$500	505d
Will Bitcoin be less than $92000 on February 14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$150	505d
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday?	BUY No	86¢	$247	507d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31?	BUY No	87¢	$191	509d
Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Wednesday?	BUY No	61¢	$150	510d
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7?	BUY No	82¢	$400	511d
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31?	BUY No	78¢	$1,003	512d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	92¢	$493	512d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?	BUY No	77¢	$529	516d
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?	SELL No	98¢	$529	516d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31?	BUY No	80¢	$193	520d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31?	BUY No	80¢	$224	520d
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24?	SELL No	100¢	$224	520d
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?	BUY No	92¢	$287	521d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	84¢	$400	521d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	84¢	$566	521d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31?	BUY No	84¢	$182	521d
Will Elon be worth $500b before March?	SELL No	75¢	$15	521d
Trump declassifies JFK files in first week?	BUY No	88¢	$200	522d
Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24?	BUY No	89¢	$200	522d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.29 · official $448.29 (match) · 48 history records