Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde04…fa37
sports · 509 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$27,472 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$20,098 · open −$3,406
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$321,790
Realized+$20,098
Unrealized−$3,406
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses100 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,896
Open positions499
Markets (closed)205 / 509
Avg bet$546
Trades / day1020.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 499 History 205 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,553
7 days+$20,098
14 days+$20,098
30 days+$20,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $20,422 $23,995 +$3,573 (+17%)
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 91¢ 100¢ $18,260 $20,015 +$1,755 (+10%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 75¢ 61¢ $18,644 $15,225 −$3,419 (-18%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $14,273 $15,121 +$848 (+6%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $10,907 $13,840 +$2,933 (+27%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $13,398 $12,630 −$768 (-6%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 20¢ 43¢ $5,058 $10,656 +$5,598 (+111%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 44¢ 20¢ $22,974 $10,132 −$12,842 (-56%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 62¢ 52¢ $8,472 $7,217 −$1,256 (-15%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $6,107 $7,196 +$1,089 (+18%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $6,392 $5,939 −$453 (-7%)
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 97¢ 100¢ $4,958 $5,106 +$148 (+3%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $4,463 $4,480 +$18 (+0%)
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Daniil Medvedev 89¢ 88¢ $4,440 $4,375 −$65 (-1%)
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes 70¢ 81¢ $3,655 $4,234 +$579 (+16%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 22¢ 18¢ $5,196 $4,129 −$1,067 (-21%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $4,196 $3,923 −$272 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $3,974 $3,316 −$659 (-17%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 34¢ 42¢ $2,592 $3,251 +$658 (+25%)
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 65¢ 62¢ $3,157 $3,020 −$137 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 23¢ $1,087 $2,823 +$1,736 (+160%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 47¢ 81¢ $1,424 $2,480 +$1,057 (+74%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $1,374 $2,465 +$1,091 (+79%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $2,489 $2,397 −$92 (-4%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 37¢ 40¢ $2,205 $2,362 +$157 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -79%
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary el Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $441 +$117 +27%
Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +62%
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +254%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,030 −$196 -10%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $193 −$137 -71%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 12 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Mark Hubbard finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $335 −$335 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2,269 +$708 +31%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $174 −$63 -36%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $826 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $212 −$160 -76%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $2,427 +$56 +2%
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $319 −$11 -4%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $221 −$121 -55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $168 −$68 -41%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $1,759 −$955 -54%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $377 +$71 +19%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $2,151 +$2,765 +128%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $455 +$148 +32%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $112 −$45 -40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $45 −$25 -56%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $137 −$27 -20%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 12 $98 −$14 -15%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $220 −$42 -19%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $2,698 −$7 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $271 −$105 -39%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $756 +$155 +20%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $2,718 +$1,545 +57%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $1,974 +$176 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $86 +$14 +16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $121 +$79 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 12 $112 +$317 +284%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America L Jun 12 $446 +$54 +12%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $982 +$664 +68%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5,095 +$405 +8%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $3,160 −$2,565 -81%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Sta Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 11 $117 −$93 -80%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$1,866
sports 39% +$7,256
politics 10% +$8,744
tech 2% −$1,256
economics 1% −$40
crypto 0% +$99
world 0% +$49
culture 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 81¢ $15 1m
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 81¢ $56 1m
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 81¢ $26 2m
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 33¢ $33 14m
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 34¢ $34 14m
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 35¢ $35 14m
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY MASQ 36¢ $36 14m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 50¢ $50 16m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY SPARTA 51¢ $51 16m
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 36¢ $37 19m
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 36¢ $37 19m
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 36¢ $9 19m
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY No 55¢ $5 19m
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 36¢ $61 21m
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European BUY against All authority 2¢ $2 24m
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 20¢ $198 34m
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 17¢ $88 34m
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 37m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 88¢ $14 38m
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 51¢ $3 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 56¢ $34 1h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY MARKandLARRY 5¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 18¢ $360 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 19¢ $19 1h
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $1,035 1h
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 1h
Will OG Anunoby lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+49.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 +64.7% +49.0% 49% 38% +6.1%
≤30d 205 +64.7% +49.0% 49% 38% +6.1%
≤90d 205 +64.7% +49.0% 49% 38% +6.1%
all 205 +64.7% +49.0% 49% 38% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1020.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +49.0% 38% +6.1%
10% +34.8% 32% -4.1%
15% ← realistic here +21.7% 27% -13.4%
20% +9.8% 22% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321,790.34 · official $324,069.97 (match) · 3500 history records