Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde05…1aba sports 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 665d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43,045 (-21%) realized −$43,045 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate42%39W / 53L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,264per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$337est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$911
7 days−$1,010
14 days−$875
30 days−$1,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$3,637
crypto 21% −$31,138
sports 18% −$5,495
other 15% +$776
world 14% −$108
finance 6% −$1,813
economics 1% −$2,681
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 33% -15.3%
≤30d 27 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 30% -14.4%
≤90d 78 -12.7% -21.1% 44% 21% -27.3%
all 92 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 21% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 21% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 11% -35.5%
15% -35.5% 5% -41.7%
20% -41.8% 2% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$1,601) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$1,004 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

665d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43,045
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses39 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$337
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage665d
Avg bet$2,264
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,696 −$569 -34%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 18 $6,313 −$611 -10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $253 +$149 +59%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $504 +$120 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $863 −$150 -17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $726 −$231 -32%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $302 −$22 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $813 −$10 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $734 +$39 +5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $954 −$86 -9%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Jun 14 $153 −$78 -51%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $458 +$17 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $700 +$225 +32%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $153 −$21 -14%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $66 −$11 -16%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $72 −$12 -16%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $978 +$215 +22%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $78 +$17 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $17 +$3 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $12 +$5 +42%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026? Jun 11 $500 +$1 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $685 +$134 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $600 −$24 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $298 −$60 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 04 $600 +$20 +3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 21 $998 −$110 -11%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5 May 13 $563 −$378 -67%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 29 $1,998 −$523 -26%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 Apr 27 $984 −$61 -6%
West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $424 −$36 -8%
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $497 −$153 -31%
CA Platense vs. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $422 +$76 +18%
Ben Pasternak jailed? Apr 24 $227 −$78 -34%
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? Apr 24 $203 −$55 -27%
Will Min Hyung-bae win the 2026 Jeonnam–Gwangju mayoral election? Apr 24 $167 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 24 $52 +$10 +18%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $748 +$161 +22%
Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $1,952 −$398 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 23 $303 −$69 -23%
Weed rescheduled by December 31? Apr 23 $404 −$29 -7%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Apr 23 $4 −$2 -37%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 23 $135 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $148 +$3 +2%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $68 +$5 +7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $94 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 22 $185 +$3 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 21 $170 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $636 +$8 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $1,127 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,696 4h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $400 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL 89¢ $402 30h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 89¢ $625 30h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $447 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY 55¢ $253 42h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $1,033 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 65¢ $713 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $495 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $38 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $142 2d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $280 2d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $302 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $302 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $546 2d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $547 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $762 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $758 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $770 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $773 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $734 3d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $735 3d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $518 3d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $274 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $682 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $78 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND SELL 17¢ $75 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 538 history records