Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde08…bf16 world 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$2
other 16% $0
sports 11% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 12 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 12 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 8% -8.9%
all 33 -2.9% -12.2% 45% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -9.0%
10% -20.6% 3% -17.7%
15% -28.2% 3% -25.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage471d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $101 +$1 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $12 −$2 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $33 +$3 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $5 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Greens be part of the next German government? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $14 $0 +3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Capone" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or below on March 20? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 61¢ $49 6m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $53 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $7 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $41 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $6 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $48 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $49 14h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 37h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 96¢ $51 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $51 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $28 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $28 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $36 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $33 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $31 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $9 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $0.00 · 91 history records