Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde0a…f102 sports 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$10,782 (+2%) realized −$39,354 · open −$5,578
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate36%79W / 139L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,971per market
Trades / day111.0pace
Fees−$1,603est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$7,611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30,088
7 days−$47,631
14 days−$56,071
30 days−$39,354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$24,690
other 36% −$19,372
politics 3% +$2,937
crypto 0% −$691
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 +21.8% +10.2% 32% 21% -27.1%
≤30d 218 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 21% -17.0%
≤90d 218 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 21% -17.0%
all 218 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 21% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 21% -17.0%
10% -18.9% 15% -25.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.7% 11% -32.2%
20% -33.9% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,637) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,218 vs −$975 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$7,611
Realized−$39,354
Unrealized−$5,578
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses79 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,603
Open positions29
Markets (closed)218 / 221
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1,971
Trades / day111.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 15¢ 61¢ $624 $2,546 +$1,922 (+308%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 69¢ 18¢ $8,223 $2,080 −$6,143 (-75%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1,401 $1,459 +$58 (+4%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? No 89¢ 84¢ $807 $762 −$45 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $1,003 $599 −$405 (-40%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $406 $107 −$300 (-74%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $94 $23 −$70 (-75%)
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 64¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+44%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $31 $1 −$30 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $481 −$438 -91%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $1,667 −$1,667 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $830 −$811 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4,768 −$4,657 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,737 −$1,696 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $408 −$397 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,268 −$1,234 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $294 −$290 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $350 −$344 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21,211 +$1,147 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $492 +$98 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,515 +$3,094 +41%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,583 −$1,551 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2,702 −$2,694 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $309 −$307 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1,077 −$1,062 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2,254 −$2,231 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4,420 +$580 +13%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $600 +$3,900 +650%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1,149 −$1,144 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $546 −$545 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $379 −$373 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10,402 −$10,286 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $142 +$1,858 +1307%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $6,223 −$6,136 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $162 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $231 −$227 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4,334 −$3,930 -91%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $313 −$305 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $4,156 −$791 -19%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $495 −$432 -87%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10,556 +$1,052 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14,273 +$366 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $2 +$26 +1567%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $209 +$8 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $10,685 +$2,652 +25%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1,642 −$1,642 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1,528 −$1,518 -99%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $414 −$405 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $3,012 −$2,961 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $191 0m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $130 3m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $922 3m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $5,994 3m
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 17m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 49m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 53m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 54m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 54m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 55m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $106 56m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $411 57m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 57m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $49 58m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 59m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $316 59m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $42 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,021 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 89¢ $879 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $36 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $108 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,610.58 · official $7,610.59 (match) · 3500 history records