Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde0e…5df8 crypto 122 markets active 3h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,112 (+12%) realized +$1,120 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%54W / 41L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$138
14 days+$141
30 days+$1,111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$1,118
weather 20% −$1
other 9% −$159
crypto 8% +$50
tech 3% +$7
sports 1% −$2
politics 1% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +4.8% -5.2% 49% 31% -19.9%
≤30d 89 +18.2% +7.0% 61% 40% +4.5%
≤90d 95 +17.0% +5.8% 57% 38% +1.3%
all 95 +17.0% +5.8% 57% 38% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 38% +1.3%
10% -4.3% 29% -8.4%
15% -13.5% 25% -17.2%
20% -22.0% 22% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$9 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$1,120
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses54 / 41
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions27
Markets (closed)95 / 122
History coverage52d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $19 $23 +$4 (+20%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+83%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $20 +$8 (+71%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+43%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $14 +$4 (+32%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-29%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-39%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-38%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$15 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$4 +8%
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -14%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $167 +$33 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $46 −$23 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +69%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $6 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $67 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $12 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.07 · official $365.15 (match) · 330 history records