Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde0e…cf5c other 25 markets active 3h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$62
sports 23% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -28.2% -35.1% 36% 32% -11.8%
≤30d 22 -28.2% -35.1% 36% 32% -11.8%
≤90d 22 -28.2% -35.1% 36% 32% -11.8%
all 22 -28.2% -35.1% 36% 32% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 32% -11.8%
10% -41.3% 27% -20.2%
15% -47.0% 23% -27.9%
20% -52.2% 18% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 34¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $106 +$34 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$20 +134%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$9 +17%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$13 +65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $11 −$2 -16%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$4 +86%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$6 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 5h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $106 17h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $35 45h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 13¢ $9 46h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 24¢ $9 46h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $14 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 2d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 15¢ $11 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 28¢ $11 2d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $16 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $6 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $20 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $61 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.17 · official $88.18 (match) · 39 history records