Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde0f…db0b sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$203 (+42%) realized +$201 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%17W / 9L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$91
14 days+$167
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$108
other 35% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.6% +39.0% 100% 100% +38.2%
≤30d 26 +19.1% +7.8% 65% 65% +36.3%
≤90d 26 +19.1% +7.8% 65% 65% +36.3%
all 26 +19.1% +7.8% 65% 65% +36.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 65% +36.3%
10% -2.5% 65% +23.3%
15% -11.9% 62% +11.3%
20% -20.6% 50% +0.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses17 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage20d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 80¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $74 +$44 +60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $35 +$43 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$8 +221%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$16 +108%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $3 +$2 +53%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 +$10 +114%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $15 +$11 +73%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $5 +$5 +103%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$35 +114%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $3 +$2 +62%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +51%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $12 +$5 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $99 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $74 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $35 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 9d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 10¢ $1 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $3 10d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 15¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 24¢ $3 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $0 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 32¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 34¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 33¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 26¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 30¢ $2 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 28¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 29¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 28¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.00 · official $103.37 (match) · 74 history records