Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:35:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde0f…ddd3 sports 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,235 (-5%) realized −$3,235 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 40L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$798per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$1,221est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$589
7 days+$589
14 days+$589
30 days−$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$507
other 14% −$3,002
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.3% +6.1% 20% 20% +34.3%
≤30d 6 -2.2% -11.5% 17% 17% -34.5%
≤90d 79 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 46% -13.4%
all 79 -9.3% -17.9% 49% 46% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 46% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 38% -21.7%
15% -32.9% 28% -29.2%
20% -39.5% 22% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$573 vs −$621 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,221
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage37d
Avg bet$798
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $307 +$1,496 +487%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $8 −$7 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $411 −$400 -97%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $1,297 −$1,277 -98%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick May 26 $684 −$673 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $251 −$122 -49%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $1,132 −$1,105 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto May 26 $330 −$269 -81%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $106 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros WTA: Emma Navarro vs Janice Tjen May 26 $2,716 −$2,710 -100%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Carlo Alberto Caniato May 26 $2,611 +$629 +24%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $204 +$99 +48%
Little Rock: Andres Martin vs Yuta Shimizu May 25 $100 −$99 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $507 +$238 +47%
Will Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw? May 25 $409 +$1,493 +365%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: Both Teams to Score May 25 $606 −$600 -99%
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $817 −$800 -98%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: Both Teams to Score May 25 $781 −$778 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score May 25 $2,055 −$2,035 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 25 $1,730 +$1,903 +110%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $2,121 +$323 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert May 24 $8,504 −$3,145 -37%
Roland Garros WTA: Sofia Kenin vs Peyton Stearns May 24 $554 −$554 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $1,013 +$740 +73%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $503 +$137 +27%
Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 23 $413 +$378 +91%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 May 23 $2,605 +$452 +17%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,010 +$195 +19%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? May 23 $205 −$205 -100%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $1,025 +$5,135 +501%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $815 +$460 +56%
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $2,827 +$1,305 +46%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2,232 −$2,200 -99%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: Both Teams to Score May 23 $391 −$391 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,525 +$252 +7%
Will Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? May 23 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Auckland FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $1,068 −$1,052 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $2,369 +$1,875 +79%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $3,037 +$2,173 +72%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $320 −$190 -59%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Sloane Stephe May 22 $645 −$645 -100%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $491 −$491 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $1,074 −$1,074 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $1,804 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 16¢ $205 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 18¢ $102 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $8 26h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $407 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $411 27h
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $566 29d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $710 29d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 29d
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick BUY Braden Shick 36¢ $75 30d
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Braden Shick BUY Braden Shick 48¢ $609 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Denis Shapovalov 12¢ $129 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana BUY Ethan Quinn 15¢ $5 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana BUY Ethan Quinn 18¢ $512 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana BUY Ethan Quinn 21¢ $614 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 21¢ $46 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 23¢ $205 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Elisabetta Cocciaretto $61 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 32¢ $98 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 38¢ $232 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 54¢ $5 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 43¢ $4 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet SELL Vit Kopriva 55¢ $7 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet BUY Vit Kopriva 43¢ $5 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang BUY Shuai Zhang 18¢ $22 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang BUY Shuai Zhang 18¢ $1 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang BUY Shuai Zhang 18¢ $2 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang BUY Shuai Zhang 25¢ $77 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima SELL Claire Liu 99¢ $106 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 503 history records