Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde0f…57c1 other 377 markets active 15h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$568 (+6%) realized +$572 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%83W / 289L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$483
14 days−$628
30 days−$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$429
crypto 10% −$152
sports 1% −$64
economics 1% −$32
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 26% -46.1%
≤30d 189 +1.7% -7.9% 23% 23% -32.7%
≤90d 317 +7.0% -3.2% 23% 22% -6.6%
all 372 +1.2% -8.5% 22% 21% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 21% -8.7%
10% -17.2% 21% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 19% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 19% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$18 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$572
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses83 / 289
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)372 / 377
History coverage110d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $24 +$8 (+47%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $12 $22 +$10 (+88%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $29 $10 −$19 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 185 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$16 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$8 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$21 +328%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -77%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$7 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$19 +306%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -92%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $16 −$5 -31%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -94%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$42 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$39 +1227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.78 · official $98.12 (match) · 1289 history records