Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde18…75da crypto 402 markets active 0h ago coverage 158d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 158d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,292 (-13%) realized −$1,292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate39%172W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$995
7 days−$1,048
14 days−$1,048
30 days−$1,048
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$599
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -26.2% -33.3% 36% 21% -24.7%
≤30d 348 -26.2% -33.3% 36% 21% -24.7%
≤90d 353 -26.0% -33.0% 36% 21% -24.5%
all 445 -20.9% -28.4% 39% 24% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 24% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 20% -27.2%
15% -41.5% 13% -34.3%
20% -47.3% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses172 / 273
Open positions0
Markets (closed)445 / 402
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 445 Trades
no open positions (197 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$13 -108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$18 -124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$6 -208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$4 -8335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$19 -146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$18 -174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$27 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$14 -325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$25 -708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$2 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 +$4 +6604%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$4 -362%
Solana Up or Down - January 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$5 -196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$10 -154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$28 -765%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$4 +675%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$8 -119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$4 -175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$5 -104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$8 -258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$33 +5902%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$24 -474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $70 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $101 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $68 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $130 +$8 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $123 +$8 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$18 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $34 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $34 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $33 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $34 54m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $43 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $43 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $43 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $43 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $84 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $41 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $41 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $126 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records