Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde19…e90d sports 335 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,914 (-8%) realized −$8,904 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%140W / 191L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$587est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,649
14 days−$1,655
30 days−$3,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$2,915
world 20% −$4,614
crypto 19% −$3,023
other 3% −$5
politics 2% +$795
culture 0% −$46
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 39% -41.0%
≤30d 61 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 39% -35.5%
≤90d 309 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 39% -18.1%
all 331 -12.6% -20.9% 42% 39% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.9% 39% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.5% 38% -25.5%
15% -35.4% 36% -32.7%
20% -41.8% 33% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$203 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$8,904
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses140 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$587
Open positions2
Markets (closed)331 / 335
History coverage96d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 19¢ 17¢ $71 $64 −$8 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,012 −$1,985 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$101 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,086 +$1,054 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $411 −$406 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $233 +$178 +76%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 −$97 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $128 −$126 -99%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $89 +$70 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 +$50 +129%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $123 −$121 -98%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $75 −$73 -98%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $41 +$36 +90%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND United States vs. Parag Jun 13 $8 +$24 +281%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$39 +152%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +110%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $152 +$119 +78%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $367 −$367 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 0.5 May 22 $1,861 −$1,853 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: O/U 1.5 May 22 $245 −$245 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Draw at halftime? May 22 $41 −$41 -99%
CSyD Macará vs. Club Alianza Atlético: O/U 1.5 May 22 $215 −$212 -99%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. Barcelona SC end in a draw? May 22 $104 +$69 +67%
Will CA Peñarol vs. SC Corinthians Paulista end in a draw? May 22 $61 −$61 -99%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 May 22 $16 +$32 +206%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 22 $11 +$42 +388%
Spread: FC Utrecht (-1.5) May 22 $30 +$70 +231%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 22 $50 +$50 +100%
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 May 22 $323 +$156 +48%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5 May 22 $907 +$401 +44%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 5.5 May 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 21 $50 −$4 -8%
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 21 $10 −$9 -90%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 21 $35 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $73 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,749 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 52¢ $264 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $0 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 42¢ $50 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $52 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,086 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $411 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $233 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $99 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $100 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 48¢ $94 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 55¢ $20 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 53¢ $3 5d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 53¢ $11 5d
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $89 5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $39 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $123 5d
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $11 5d
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 5d
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $75 5d
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 6d
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.95 · official $80.95 (match) · 2520 history records