Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde1a…77b3 world 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate62%106W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$2
14 days−$9
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$10
other 17% −$32
crypto 16% −$7
finance 11% +$13
politics 11% +$5
tech 9% −$2
sports 6% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 22% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 13% -10.4%
≤90d 129 +0.5% -9.1% 61% 12% -9.4%
all 170 -2.8% -12.1% 62% 17% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 17% -10.1%
10% -20.5% 5% -18.7%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.6%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses106 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)170 / 181
History coverage426d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $56 $34 −$22 (-40%)
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+7%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 90¢ 93¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 86¢ 91¢ $29 $30 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? No 89¢ 88¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 88¢ 86¢ $29 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 88¢ 95¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 88¢ 91¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 78¢ 74¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 87¢ 92¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Jun 24 $39 +$3 +8%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $30 +$3 +9%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $30 −$2 -6%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $30 −$4 -15%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 23 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 23 $30 −$7 -23%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 23 $14 +$2 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +8%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -9%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Jun 22 $30 +$3 +11%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $57 +$7 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 22 $43 −$1 -2%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 22 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 22 $32 −$2 -5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $62 +$6 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 22 $29 +$2 +6%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 20 $14 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 18 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 16 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $28 +$5 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $28 −$3 -10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 10 $45 −$4 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 07 $17 −$1 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $49 −$4 -9%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 07 $19 −$2 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $31 1h
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 99¢ $33 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 78¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 74¢ $4 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY No 89¢ $30 9h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 99¢ $2 9h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 99¢ $31 9h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $29 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $29 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $23 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $6 17h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $17 18h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $9 18h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 77¢ $25 18h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 19h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 20h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 20h
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 23h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $23 24h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 94¢ $15 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $15 24h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $4 26h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $5 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 84¢ $5 28h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 90¢ $30 30h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $30 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.06 · official $234.87 (match) · 479 history records