Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde1a…324d world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% $0
other 13% $0
politics 6% −$6
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 24 -2.0% -11.3% 38% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 4% -19.4%
15% -27.6% 4% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage447d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 26 $1 +$1 +47%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.24 · official $31.04 (match) · 74 history records