Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde1b…f94f sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,080 (-39%) realized −$2,081 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$2,070
politics 10% +$1
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.9% -29.3% 50% 50% -47.2%
≤30d 14 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 43% -30.7%
≤90d 14 -21.9% -29.4% 43% 43% -30.7%
all 20 -5.4% -14.4% 50% 50% -48.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 50% -48.5%
10% -22.6% 50% -53.4%
15% -30.1% 50% -57.9%
20% -36.9% 35% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$345 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$516
Realized−$2,081
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage180d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $511 $513 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Philadelphia Phillies 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 09 $0 $0 +69%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 09 $6 +$2 +43%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 01 $3 +$6 +220%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 May 30 $4 +$2 +49%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $5 +$4 +72%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 May 27 $4 −$4 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $6 +$2 +39%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -99%
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 18 $2,819 −$2,819 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 1PM ET Dec 18 $59 +$59 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 2PM ET Dec 18 $26 +$26 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 11AM ET Dec 18 $426 +$426 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 10AM ET Dec 18 $844 +$844 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 12PM ET Dec 17 $606 −$606 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 36¢ $4 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $3 44h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 44h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $4 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 3d
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 59¢ $0 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 70¢ $0 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 11d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 15d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $4 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 67¢ $0 16d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 17d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $0 17d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $0 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $0 19d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3 20d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 20d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 40¢ $0 22d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 22d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 24d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 24d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $512 26d
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2,548 179d
XRP Up or Down - December 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $270 179d
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 1PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $118 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $516.30 · official $516.10 (match) · 73 history records