Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xde1c…ab79 world 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%33W / 69L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$8
14 days+$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$11
other 21% +$1
politics 14% $0
sports 10% +$8
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% +$1
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.1% -7.7% 56% 11% -7.5%
≤30d 28 -0.6% -10.1% 39% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 70 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 6% -9.1%
all 102 +1.2% -8.4% 32% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 5% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 4% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses33 / 69
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)102 / 106
History coverage485d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 55¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $24 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $124 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $69 +$6 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -57%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -46%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $48 −$3 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $49 +$3 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 +$2 +59%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $39 +$2 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $69 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $128 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 83¢ $43 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $44 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $30 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.30 · official $42.38 · 366 history records