Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DE 0xde1d…44a6 sports 326 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,000 (+4%) realized +$10,161 · open −$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%156W / 168L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3,899est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$636
7 days−$14,766
14 days−$13,534
30 days−$53,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$5,193
other 7% +$81
crypto 1% +$473
world 0% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -32.2% -38.7% 38% 38% -69.9%
≤30d 149 -39.5% -45.3% 33% 33% -58.9%
≤90d 324 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 48% -7.5%
all 324 -1.4% -10.8% 48% 48% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 48% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 47% -16.3%
15% -27.1% 44% -24.4%
20% -34.3% 42% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,082) neutral
Persistence
early +27% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$813 vs −$721 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$10,161
Unrealized−$161
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses156 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,899
Open positions2
Markets (closed)324 / 326
History coverage61d
Avg bet$765
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Yulia Starodubtseva 46¢ 22¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 54¢ 0¢ $108 $0 −$108 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $109 +$90 +82%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $96 −$95 -99%
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet Jun 16 $98 −$96 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $118 −$116 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $264 −$260 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $219 +$260 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 16 $163 −$163 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $198 −$195 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $143 +$257 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $139 +$102 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$15 +29%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $132 −$38 -29%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $146 +$106 +73%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $128 +$149 +116%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $186 +$63 +34%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $97 +$94 +97%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $117 +$69 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Little Rock: Jay Dylan Friend vs Justin Boulais Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 15 $223 −$223 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 15 $190 −$190 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Georgii Kravchenko vs Jan Kumstat Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $590 −$590 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils Jun 15 $653 −$653 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 15 $609 −$609 -100%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $742 −$742 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 15 $417 −$417 -100%
SC RASTA Vechta vs. Alba Berlin Jun 15 $1,037 −$1,037 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 15 $1,303 −$1,303 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Hanyu Guo vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 15 $1,457 −$1,457 -100%
Wuerzburg vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn Jun 15 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Xiyu Wang Jun 15 $2,008 −$2,008 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 15 $2,542 −$2,542 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Himeno Sak Jun 15 $1,865 −$1,865 -100%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $102 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 46¢ $102 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $199 1h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $109 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 54¢ $109 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 60¢ $96 22h
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet SELL Maxime Janvier 1¢ $2 22h
Royan: Maxime Janvier vs Emilien Demanet BUY Maxime Janvier 45¢ $98 23h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 54¢ $118 24h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 52¢ $264 26h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $479 26h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 45¢ $219 28h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Chase Ferguson 25¢ $100 30h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Yecong Mo 48¢ $198 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $199 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $400 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $143 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $139 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $69 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 40h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 47¢ $163 41h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 34¢ $94 41h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 46¢ $132 42h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Stefano Napolitano 99¢ $252 42h
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 56¢ $146 42h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Coleman Wong 57¢ $130 44h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 99¢ $278 44h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 45¢ $128 44h
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Juan Pablo Ficovich 44¢ $121 46h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Tristan Boyer 48¢ $100 46h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 74¢ $186 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.97 · official $46.97 (match) · 823 history records