Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde21…d8b8 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+0%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 49L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 63% −$14
politics 16% −$8
other 15% +$5
world 2% −$1
sports 1% +$83
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 56 +4.3% -5.6% 23% 16% -8.3%
all 65 +3.6% -6.2% 25% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 14% -9.2%
10% -15.2% 14% -17.9%
15% -23.4% 14% -25.9%
20% -30.9% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 49
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage630d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $220 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $171 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $373 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $196 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $379 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $192 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $186 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $7 +$6 +86%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $18 +$8 +46%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 08 $9 +$10 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 08 $18 +$2 +10%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $16 +$10 +59%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $23 +$14 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 54m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 23h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 25h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $11 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 15d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 23d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 23d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $23 24d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.75 · official $27.75 (match) · 286 history records