Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DE 0xde24…2b2f sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-1%) realized −$195 · open +$122
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$390
sports 50% −$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.4% -18.0% 75% 62% -10.8%
≤30d 8 -9.4% -18.0% 75% 62% -10.8%
≤90d 8 -9.4% -18.0% 75% 62% -10.8%
all 8 -9.4% -18.0% 75% 62% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 62% -10.8%
10% -25.9% 25% -19.3%
15% -33.0% 12% -27.1%
20% -39.6% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$349 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$122
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 78¢ 100¢ $448 $571 +$122 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $109 +$9 +8%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $303 −$298 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $622 +$98 +16%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $570 +$139 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,280 +$185 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,114 +$157 +14%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $403 −$400 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 76¢ $72 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $55 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $160 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $19 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 79¢ $144 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 92¢ $82 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 92¢ $28 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $45 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 42¢ $48 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 42¢ $210 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Jessica Pegula 86¢ $622 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $29 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $12 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $21 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $9 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $21 5h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Alex de Minaur 80¢ $477 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $1,245 26h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $35 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $749 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $365 46h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 76¢ $403 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.61 · official $570.61 (match) · 29 history records