trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 60% | 20% | -8.7% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +5.2% | -4.8% | 70% | 30% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +15.0% | +4.1% | 77% | 46% | -7.6% |
| all | 16 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 69% | 38% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 38% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 12% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 12% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 6% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $110 | $109 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-1%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | No | 63¢ | 62¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? | Jun 29 | $93 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 29 | $82 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 22 | $27 | +$4 | +13% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $63 | −$3 | -5% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $83 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $16 | +$3 | +18% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 06 | $27 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Jun 06 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | May 24 | $3 | +$1 | +44% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | May 24 | $3 | +$2 | +84% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | Mar 29 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Mar 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? | Feb 28 | $4 | $0 | +3% |