Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde26…4017 world 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate43%53W / 70L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$5
14 days+$2
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$60
sports 19% $0
other 16% +$10
politics 13% +$3
economics 6% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
culture 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 27 +149.0% +125.3% 52% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 45 +87.5% +69.7% 51% 9% -9.2%
all 123 +30.5% +18.1% 43% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.1% 4% -9.2%
10% +6.8% 2% -17.9%
15% -3.5% 2% -25.8%
20% -13.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses53 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage457d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $567 +$1 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $412 −$10 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $18 −$2 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $198 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $209 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $427 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $660 −$3 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $170 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $351 +$10 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $207 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $157 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $450 −$30 -7%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $112 +$10 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $488 −$2 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $255 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $265 +$9 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $134 +$13 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $353 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $177 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $178 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $30 +$3 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 25 $55 +$6 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $222 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $164 +$57 +35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $201 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $162 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $27 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $156 −$4 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $131 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $835 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $982 +$1 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $2,059 +$4 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $978 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1,078 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 22 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 22 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 29m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $89 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $105 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $161 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $223 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $221 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $32 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $44 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $101 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $74 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 61¢ $123 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $206 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $180 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $145 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.00 (match) · 479 history records