Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde27…92c0 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$141 (-2%) realized +$88 · open −$229
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$621per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$925
crypto 2% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.8% -6.1% 56% 44% +5.6%
≤30d 10 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 40% +4.8%
≤90d 10 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 40% +4.8%
all 10 -3.0% -12.2% 50% 40% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 40% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 40% -5.2%
15% -28.3% 20% -14.4%
20% -35.3% 10% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$386 vs −$168 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$229
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage7d
Avg bet$621
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 91¢ $239 $238 −$1 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 35¢ $229 $0 −$229 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $2,493 +$1,246 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $430 −$35 -8%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $507 +$32 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $130 +$99 +76%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $52 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $102 −$64 -62%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $725 +$201 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,422 −$697 -49%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,058 +$352 +33%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $70 −$45 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $44 50m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 50m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $91 50m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $14 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,739 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $303 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $303 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $55 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 4 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $152 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $111 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1,566 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $216 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $99 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $212 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 83¢ $12 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $138 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $59 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $63 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $228 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $238.38 · official $238.38 (match) · 62 history records