Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xde27…4969 other 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%50W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$31
14 days+$33
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$39
politics 20% +$16
sports 11% +$21
crypto 5% $0
world 1% $0
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +50.8% +36.4% 52% 52% +15.1%
≤30d 31 +44.9% +31.1% 55% 55% +12.8%
≤90d 115 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 41% -6.3%
all 115 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 41% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 41% -6.3%
10% -25.3% 32% -15.2%
15% -32.5% 26% -23.4%
20% -39.2% 20% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses50 / 65
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions36
Markets (closed)115 / 152
History coverage62d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 86¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+79%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $6 +$2 (+63%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? No 62¢ 61¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+60%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will Fluminense win Brazil Série A? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-76%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +308%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 14 $13 +$10 +78%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1521%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$4 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 $0 +35%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? May 26 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $4 $0 -4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $2 $0 -16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $1 +$2 +197%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $1 +$1 +65%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Club Olimpia end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 $0 +44%
Will Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 $0 +31%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 30 $1 +$2 +108%
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. CA River Plate end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Club Cerro Porteño vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw? Apr 30 $2 +$5 +248%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 +$1 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 1h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL Yes 22¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 43¢ $3 13h
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 29¢ $1 13h
Will Uruguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cu BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cu BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 36¢ $1 13h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 13h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 53¢ $1 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 76¢ $8 21h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.19 · official $77.35 · 340 history records