Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xde2e…e126 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+5%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$5
culture 27% +$2
other 14% +$3
politics 4% +$1
sports 3% +$46
crypto 2% −$2
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +1.1% -8.6% 45% 5% -8.6%
≤90d 20 +1.1% -8.6% 45% 5% -8.6%
all 43 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 12% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 12% -4.9%
10% -13.2% 2% -14.0%
15% -21.6% 2% -22.3%
20% -29.3% 2% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×9.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.06 per $1 lost it wins $14.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage455d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $19 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $35 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +14%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $137 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $15 +$46 +308%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 27 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 06 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Knicks vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? Jun 02 $2 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 13 $11 $0 -3%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 30 $9 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 05 $12 $0 +2%
Solana above $130 on March 28? Mar 28 $14 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 35h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $13 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 10d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 10d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $21 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $13 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $24 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $8 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $36 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $36 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $10 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $3 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records