Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde2e…186a crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$128 (-6%) realized −$109 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%40W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day169.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 39% -19.1%
≤30d 94 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 39% -19.1%
≤90d 94 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 39% -19.1%
all 94 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 39% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 39% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 34% -26.8%
15% -35.6% 29% -33.9%
20% -41.9% 21% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses40 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day169.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Up 45¢ 4¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$18 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$16 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $62 −$16 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$44 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $37 +$17 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$29 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$27 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$28 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$37 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $61 −$19 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$21 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$15 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$18 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$23 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$15 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$15 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $43 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$21 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$13 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$22 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $24 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $38 −$27 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$14 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$61 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$10 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$4 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $22 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $34 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $30 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $43 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $4.47 · 407 history records