Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde2f…6a7f crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-21%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$70
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$165
sports 8% +$2
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.7% -35.5% 43% 43% -43.2%
≤30d 57 -22.9% -30.3% 44% 42% -38.0%
≤90d 57 -22.9% -30.3% 44% 42% -38.0%
all 57 -22.9% -30.3% 44% 42% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 42% -38.0%
10% -37.0% 40% -43.9%
15% -43.0% 30% -49.3%
20% -48.6% 21% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +29%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 +$10 +237%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$6 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$9 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$5 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$8 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $4 9d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $10 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $14 10d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $4 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 37¢ $4 10d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $5 10d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records