Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde2f…ad33 sports 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (185 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$155 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%104W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day185.5pace
Fees−$268est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$589
7 days−$792
14 days−$839
30 days−$839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$929
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (185 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 231 -19.8% -27.5% 45% 38% -18.0%
≤30d 234 -19.6% -27.3% 44% 38% -18.3%
≤90d 234 -19.6% -27.3% 44% 38% -18.3%
all 234 -19.6% -27.3% 44% 38% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover185.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 38% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.3% 32% -26.1%
15% -40.6% 18% -33.2%
20% -46.4% 7% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$155
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses104 / 130
Est. fees paid−$268
Open positions3
Markets (closed)234 / 237
History coverage12d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day185.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Lucie Havlickova 60¢ 52¢ $52 $46 −$7 (-13%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva Ella McDonald 69¢ 18¢ $53 $14 −$38 (-73%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 73¢ 11¢ $52 $8 −$44 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $105 +$26 +25%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Whitney Osuigwe Jun 23 $39 −$23 -59%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 23 $78 +$28 +36%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 23 $66 +$25 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $91 +$29 +31%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $66 +$20 +31%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo Jun 23 $104 −$50 -48%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiaodi You vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 23 $52 +$19 +37%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Veronika Podrez Jun 23 $104 −$50 -48%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 23 $105 −$51 -49%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 23 $104 −$51 -49%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 23 $66 −$39 -59%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mona Barthel vs Lin Zhu Jun 23 $79 −$39 -49%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Clervie Ngounoue Jun 23 $65 −$38 -59%
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker Jun 23 $104 −$51 -49%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Katy Dunne Jun 23 $52 +$13 +25%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $105 −$52 -49%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Yuriko Miyazaki vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 23 $39 −$25 -64%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $132 −$35 -27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $38 +$6 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $13 −$12 -93%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Polona Hercog Jun 23 $51 −$24 -48%
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $26 −$24 -92%
Plovdiv: Philip Henning vs Andres Santamarta Jun 23 $79 +$12 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Varvara Lepchenko vs Anastasia Gasanova Jun 23 $79 +$10 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 23 $27 +$3 +10%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $40 +$2 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Panna Udvardy vs Anna Bondar Jun 23 $118 +$14 +12%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $92 +$20 +22%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 23 $39 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $26 −$3 -11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $13 +$2 +14%
Plovdiv: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Jelle Sels Jun 23 $26 +$1 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $92 +$28 +31%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maddison Inglis vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 23 $104 +$35 +34%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $53 +$20 +37%
Plovdiv: Gabriele Piraino vs Lorenzo Angelini Jun 23 $52 −$38 -74%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 23 $78 +$24 +31%
Targu Mures: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 23 $77 −$37 -48%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Viktor Durasovic Jun 23 $39 −$25 -64%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Francisca Jorge Jun 23 $65 −$39 -60%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $92 −$52 -56%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Noma Noha Akugue vs Lisa Pigato Jun 23 $39 −$6 -14%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $77 +$33 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Celine Naef vs Joanna Garland Jun 23 $142 +$47 +33%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $90 +$32 +36%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $91 −$50 -56%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Angela Fita Boluda vs Lina Gjorcheska Jun 23 $65 −$51 -79%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Esther Adeshina Jun 23 $79 +$31 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan SELL Jeline Vandromme 46¢ $86 36m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Barbora Krejcikova 57¢ $64 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Yue Yuan 75¢ $13 46m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 74¢ $46 54m
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Elina Svitolina SELL Elina Svitolina 85¢ $47 59m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Yue Yuan 73¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 23¢ $12 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee SELL Carol Young Suh Lee 52¢ $60 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva SELL Elvina Kalieva 45¢ $45 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 54¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Yue Yuan 73¢ $13 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Kimberly Birrell 76¢ $67 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 26¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 69¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova SELL Hayu Kinoshita 48¢ $67 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva BUY Ella McDonald 70¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Yue Yuan 72¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Carol Young Suh Lee 28¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 66¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 26¢ $13 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Kimberly Birrell 70¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Jeline Vandromme vs Yue Yuan BUY Jeline Vandromme 30¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova SELL Viktoriya Tomova 74¢ $53 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Carol Young Suh Lee 34¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 32¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee BUY Carol Young Suh Lee 35¢ $13 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 52¢ $52 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Viktoriya Tomova 58¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Whitney Osuigwe BUY Whitney Osuigwe 24¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ella McDonald vs Elvina Kalieva BUY Ella McDonald 64¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.63 · official $66.73 (match) · 2186 history records