Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde35…3e30 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 422d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-4%) realized −$42 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$17
tech 1% −$1
other 1% −$2
economics 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -9.4% -18.1% 54% 39% -8.0%
≤30d 46 -9.4% -18.1% 54% 39% -8.0%
≤90d 47 -11.4% -19.8% 53% 38% -8.2%
all 59 -21.0% -28.5% 47% 36% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 36% -9.0%
10% -35.3% 31% -17.7%
15% -41.6% 25% -25.7%
20% -47.3% 20% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage422d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 83¢ 94¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$4 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$17 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$30 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$19 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$21 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$8 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$5 -23%
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -83%
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Bill Pulte as the next Fed chair? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by Jan Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $42 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.92 · official $28.76 · 174 history records