Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde37…c71e other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$959 (-10%) realized −$959 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%24W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days−$1,147
14 days−$1,319
30 days−$1,345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1,560
economics 30% +$294
crypto 10% −$68
politics 8% +$363
sports 8% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.6% -18.2% 67% 67% -72.7%
≤30d 24 +2.2% -7.5% 67% 42% -28.7%
≤90d 25 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 40% -29.4%
all 40 -9.3% -18.0% 60% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 40% -14.4%
10% -25.8% 28% -22.6%
15% -33.0% 25% -30.0%
20% -39.5% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$148 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$959
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage717d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 +$36 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,245 −$1,243 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,177 +$68 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $89 −$58 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 +$32 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $420 −$402 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$219 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $192 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $186 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $175 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $172 +$9 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $147 +$25 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 09 $90 −$63 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$5 +60%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $63 −$26 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 03 $55 −$45 -82%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $200 −$89 -44%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $3,003 +$294 +10%
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year? Jan 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will 'Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth' win Game of the Year? Jan 15 $99 −$94 -94%
Will 'Astro Bot' win Game of the Year? Nov 29 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $844 +$363 +43%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Colombia wins Copa America 2024? Jul 15 $194 +$104 +54%
Copa America: Uruguay vs. Brazil - Who will advance? Jul 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Copa America: Uruguay vs. Colombia Jul 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Euro Finals: Spain vs. England Jul 14 $115 +$79 +69%
Copa America: Argentina vs. Canada Jul 10 $183 +$32 +18%
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? Jul 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Turkey - Who will advance? Jul 06 $111 +$33 +30%
Portugal vs. France - Who will advance? Jul 06 $20 +$13 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $300 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,245 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,177 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $32 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $89 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $57 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $15 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $420 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $419 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $200 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $192 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $186 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $92 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $69 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $172 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $147 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $14 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $13 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records