Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:28:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde3c…2289 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-16%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$7
sports 31% −$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +13.0% +2.3% 22% 22% -22.7%
≤30d 23 +13.0% +2.3% 22% 22% -22.7%
≤90d 23 +13.0% +2.3% 22% 22% -22.7%
all 23 +13.0% +2.3% 22% 22% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 22% -22.7%
10% -7.5% 17% -30.1%
15% -16.5% 17% -36.9%
20% -24.7% 17% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$15 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $100 +$17 +17%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$21 -42%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$4 -8%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 +$9 +83%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$9 -28%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $10 +$56 +550%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$68 +442%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$40 +786%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $9 −$4 -42%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $30 26h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 32h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 30¢ $51 32h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 33h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 33h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 39h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 39h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $22 2d
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records