Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde3e…9105 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 443d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-5%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 34% $0
politics 9% −$20
crypto 7% −$1
culture 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 43% 0% -9.8%
all 35 -4.8% -13.9% 43% 3% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 3% -14.0%
10% -22.1% 0% -22.2%
15% -29.6% 0% -29.7%
20% -36.5% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

443d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage443d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $41 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 21 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 06 $3 $0 +16%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days May 06 $3 $0 +2%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 41°F or below on April 2? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 3h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $14 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $37 15d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $40 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $1 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $40 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $27 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $33 20d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 183d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $5 356d
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $5 374d
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi SELL No 99¢ $5 374d
Will "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina" Opening Weekend Box Offi BUY No 96¢ $5 375d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records