Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DE 0xde3e…3c0a other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate44%43W / 55L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$15
other 23% $0
sports 18% +$3
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.5% -10.8% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 27 -0.8% -10.2% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 39 +49.4% +35.1% 33% 3% -9.7%
all 98 +19.4% +8.0% 44% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 4% -9.7%
10% -2.3% 3% -18.3%
15% -11.7% 1% -26.2%
20% -20.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses43 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage491d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $297 −$1 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $182 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $101 $0 +0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $34 −$3 -10%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $168 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $69 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $88 −$5 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $172 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $227 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $180 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $171 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $152 +$4 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $73 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $171 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $177 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $129 −$3 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $158 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $158 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $672 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $333 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $480 −$16 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $493 −$6 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $175 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $107 −$5 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $16 −$2 -11%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $8 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $140 +$43 +30%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $144 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $339 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $1,089 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $989 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $987 +$3 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $987 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $6 $0 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 09 $9 $0 -3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? Jun 06 $8 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $148 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $148 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $94 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $54 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $149 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $114 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $38 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $73 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $101 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $101 26h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $128 30h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 32h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $129 32h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 38h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $19 38h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 39h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 39h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $168 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $168 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $45 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.61 · official $3.58 · 399 history records