Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DE 0xde3e…8d2b crypto 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$73 (-16%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%178W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +16.9% +5.7% 100% 50% +10.5%
≤30d 2 +16.9% +5.7% 100% 50% +10.5%
≤90d 2 +16.9% +5.7% 100% 50% +10.5%
all 342 +0.3% -9.2% 52% 51% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 51% -24.4%
10% -17.9% 51% -31.6%
15% -25.8% 44% -38.2%
20% -33.1% 35% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses178 / 164
Open positions0
Markets (closed)342 / 342
History coverage115d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 342 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 12 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 10 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 10 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 10 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$2 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$2 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$2 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 23 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $3 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 684 history records