Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DE 0xde3f…b3b6 other 13 markets active 4d ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+11%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.9% +14.8% 88% 75% -0.6%
≤30d 13 +24.3% +12.5% 85% 77% -0.5%
≤90d 13 +24.3% +12.5% 85% 77% -0.5%
all 13 +24.3% +12.5% 85% 77% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 77% -0.5%
10% +1.7% 62% -10.0%
15% -8.1% 62% -18.7%
20% -17.1% 31% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$30 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 +$2 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$28 +120%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$7 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 +$20 +53%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records