Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde3f…7aae crypto 744 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$341 (-3%) realized −$340 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%451W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$526
other 0% −$5
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +8.4% -1.9% 73% 59% -4.4%
≤30d 105 +8.4% -1.9% 73% 59% -4.4%
≤90d 662 -3.0% -12.2% 60% 50% -14.6%
all 743 -1.6% -10.9% 61% 51% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 51% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 38% -22.3%
15% -27.2% 25% -29.8%
20% -34.4% 17% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$340
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses451 / 292
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)743 / 744
History coverage94d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 743 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Down 78¢ 72¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $67 −$15 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$8 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$17 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$12 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $34 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.68 · official $18.68 (match) · 2399 history records