Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde3f…aa05 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$88 (-12%) realized +$15 · open −$103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$102
sports 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +30.2% +17.8% 60% 20% -8.3%
≤30d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 62% 25% -6.8%
≤90d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 62% 25% -6.8%
all 8 +31.5% +19.0% 62% 25% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 25% -6.8%
10% +7.6% 25% -15.7%
15% -2.8% 25% -23.9%
20% -12.3% 25% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$103
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $100 $68 −$32 (-32%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $53 $21 −$33 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 20 $152 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $60 −$6 -9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +174%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 55¢ $25 12m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 24m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 26m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 40m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 49¢ $102 43m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $70 52m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 55m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $70 59m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $33 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $54 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $60 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 7d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 51¢ $14 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $55 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.00 · official $250.00 (match) · 38 history records