Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:45:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde43…0bd7 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$289 (-22%) realized −$169 · open −$120
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$487
other 43% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -53.6% -58.0% 25% 25% -76.6%
≤30d 16 -53.6% -58.0% 25% 25% -76.6%
≤90d 16 -53.6% -58.0% 25% 25% -76.6%
all 16 -53.6% -58.0% 25% 25% -76.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.0% 25% -76.6%
10% ← realistic here -62.1% 25% -78.8%
15% -65.7% 25% -80.9%
20% -69.1% 19% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$64 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$169
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $228 $109 −$120 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $38 +$34 +92%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $132 −$130 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $112 −$111 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $144 −$142 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $168 −$29 -17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $143 −$139 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $23 +$36 +152%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33 +$21 +63%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $64 −$63 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 +$13 +36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $123 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $80 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 60¢ $6 2h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 50¢ $31 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $132 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $112 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $41 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 22¢ $20 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 22¢ $9 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $182 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $8 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $24 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $46 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 9h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Riyadh Falcons 46¢ $61 9h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 64¢ $61 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $89 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 95¢ $59 27h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $23 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $54 30h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 45¢ $64 31h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $33 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.89 · official $108.89 (match) · 41 history records