Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde45…8597 other 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,589 (+6%) realized +$7,074 · open +$515
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 44L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,413per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1,112est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$5,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,588
7 days−$1,132
14 days+$9,968
30 days+$11,498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,676
other 46% +$9,092
politics 0% −$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +8.0% -2.2% 49% 49% -11.0%
≤30d 64 +19.6% +8.2% 50% 50% +1.5%
≤90d 72 +17.3% +6.1% 49% 49% -0.2%
all 82 +11.6% +0.9% 46% 46% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 46% -4.1%
10% -8.7% 45% -13.2%
15% -17.5% 45% -21.6%
20% -25.6% 41% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$1,704) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,634 vs −$1,260 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$5,215
Realized+$7,074
Unrealized+$515
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,112
Open positions7
Markets (closed)82 / 89
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,413
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 50¢ 68¢ $1,000 $1,370 +$370 (+37%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 30¢ 38¢ $1,000 $1,283 +$283 (+28%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 46¢ 46¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $1,000 $861 −$139 (-14%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $500 $512 +$12 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,016 +$1,127 +111%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $511 +$1,263 +247%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,023 +$907 +45%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $2,032 +$2,224 +109%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $307 −$300 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,020 −$848 -83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,038 −$2,000 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,019 +$1,238 +122%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,539 +$3,263 +128%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,020 +$995 +98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1,329 +$1,188 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8,486 −$2,090 -25%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2,641 +$2,662 +101%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,725 −$103 -4%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $5,084 −$3,676 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $942 +$1,554 +165%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,895 +$4,043 +140%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,724 −$1,704 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $686 +$1,039 +152%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $8,693 −$8,542 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,013 +$644 +64%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3,035 +$1,883 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,014 +$816 +80%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 $0 -5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2,028 +$1,676 +83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,027 +$939 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,019 −$880 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $1,016 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 30¢ $1,021 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $1,015 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,017 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,774 21h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 22h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,016 23h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $1,017 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 23h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 95¢ $934 24h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 89¢ $1,996 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 25h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $2,029 37h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $2,023 37h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 47¢ $2,032 37h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $307 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $171 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1,020 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $2,038 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 17¢ $102 47h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $996 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,262 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,019 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 2d
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 40¢ $1,018 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1,020 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 91¢ $5,801 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,215.04 · official $5,215.04 (match) · 166 history records