Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde45…1a8d sports 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$400 (+2%) realized +$403 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%66W / 70L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$546
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$626
other 31% +$612
crypto 4% +$183
world 1% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 34 -12.0% -20.4% 41% 38% -21.5%
≤90d 119 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 49% -8.0%
all 136 -3.6% -12.8% 49% 48% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 48% -8.1%
10% -21.1% 47% -16.9%
15% -28.8% 47% -24.9%
20% -35.7% 42% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$87 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$403
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses66 / 70
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 154
History coverage99d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $30 −$12 -41%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $102 −$60 -60%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$45 +173%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 −$54 -27%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $41 +$70 +170%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 11 $152 +$72 +47%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $217 +$203 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 07 $99 −$98 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $128 −$125 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $160 −$158 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $75 +$85 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $332 −$258 -78%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $156 −$83 -53%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $66 +$72 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $101 +$53 +52%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $61 +$52 +86%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $101 +$60 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $250 +$125 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $76 −$30 -40%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $260 −$255 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $21 −$20 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 29 $298 +$10 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $202 −$70 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 29 $101 +$80 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $124 +$103 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $153 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $21 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 28 $203 +$214 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $234 −$234 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $203 +$214 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $504 −$351 -70%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 25 $75 +$43 +57%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $217 +$203 +93%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 22 $203 −$200 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $304 −$300 -99%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $152 +$160 +105%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $152 +$174 +114%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $240 +$125 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end BUY $20 2h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana BUY $25 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw BUY 10¢ $70 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in BUY $10 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dr BUY 10¢ $50 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND W BUY $40 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a dr BUY 14¢ $50 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 14¢ $120 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY $38 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY $51 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 11¢ $26 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY $136 15d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND BUY $62 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY $57 15d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 46¢ $102 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 24¢ $102 15d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens SELL Elise Mertens 39¢ $18 15d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Ugo Humbert 21¢ $41 15d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 64¢ $30 16d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Anastasia Potapova 43¢ $31 16d
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $102 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 41¢ $148 16d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 91¢ $110 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 87¢ $224 16d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 33¢ $41 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 58¢ $152 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $203 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.85 · official $536.00 · 255 history records