Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde46…a7af crypto 1400 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,618 (-3%) realized −$3,618 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%661W / 739L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$188
14 days+$222
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5,004
other 0% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +19.1% +7.8% 66% 66% +12.3%
≤30d 359 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 48% -12.1%
≤90d 847 -11.4% -19.9% 48% 47% -15.7%
all 1400 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 47% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 47% -12.8%
10% -25.1% 46% -21.2%
15% -32.4% 36% -28.8%
20% -39.0% 34% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$63 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses661 / 739
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1400 / 1400
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1400 Trades
no open positions (356 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $47 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records