Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DE 0xde48…2fcb politics 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$2
other 7% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 8 -12.2% -20.6% 12% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 0% -11.2%
10% -28.2% 0% -19.7%
15% -35.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -41.5% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage250d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$12 -82%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 11 $15 $0 -0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 21 $19 $0 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 2h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 4h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 6h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 8h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 15h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 131d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $15 131d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 185d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $8 213d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $11 213d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $19 222d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $49 250d
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $49 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records