Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde48…9dbe other 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$246 (-9%) realized −$181 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%49W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days−$222
14 days−$312
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$254
sports 30% +$37
crypto 7% −$142
world 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -6.6% -15.5% 38% 36% -30.0%
≤30d 121 +20.3% +8.8% 40% 38% -20.9%
≤90d 121 +20.3% +8.8% 40% 38% -20.9%
all 121 +20.3% +8.8% 40% 38% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 38% -20.9%
10% -1.6% 32% -28.5%
15% -11.1% 26% -35.4%
20% -19.8% 21% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$17 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses49 / 72
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions26
Markets (closed)121 / 150
History coverage21d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $9 $13 +$5 (+55%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 46¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$2 (+50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 85¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-82%)
Will Sadio Mane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Marie Bouzková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-96%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$20 +196%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$34 +168%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$8 +40%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$42 +206%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 15 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$43 +212%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $15 +$10 +68%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +143%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bratislava: Hynek Barton vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $13 +$163 +1223%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$5 +25%
Tucuman: Juan Sebastian Gomez vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Oliver Okonkwo Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 +$7 +74%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $10 +$3 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $10 +$19 +187%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $14 +$6 +46%
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 09 $14 −$8 -60%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 09 $10 $0 -5%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 17m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 29m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $19 31m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $20 52m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $13 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $29 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $9 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 76¢ $10 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 18h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 19h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $7 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $59 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $52 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $12 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $10 24h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 62¢ $7 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.71 · official $136.72 (match) · 363 history records