Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde4b…4137 crypto 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-4%) realized −$226 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%189W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$119
14 days−$214
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$352
sports 2% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -17.8% -25.6% 56% 48% -22.1%
≤30d 253 -8.9% -17.6% 62% 56% -15.3%
≤90d 306 -7.9% -16.7% 62% 56% -15.4%
all 306 -7.9% -16.7% 62% 56% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 56% -15.4%
10% -24.6% 43% -23.5%
15% -31.9% 27% -30.9%
20% -38.6% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses189 / 117
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)306 / 307
History coverage35d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 82¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$15 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$16 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.57 · official $3.38 (match) · 686 history records