Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DE 0xde4c…76a5 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+3%) realized +$15 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 17 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 47% -7.3%
≤90d 17 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 47% -7.3%
all 17 -1.9% -11.2% 47% 47% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 47% -7.3%
10% -19.7% 47% -16.2%
15% -27.5% 47% -24.3%
20% -34.6% 41% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ 52¢ $54 $52 −$1 (-3%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 47¢ 46¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 45¢ 44¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $52 +$35 +67%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $12 +$13 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $21 −$2 -7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $19 +$21 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $17 +$23 +134%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $14 +$19 +134%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $16 +$15 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $21 +$9 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $36 +$31 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 45¢ $13 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $54 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 47¢ $27 2h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 47¢ $12 43h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $13 44h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $52 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $20 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $16 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $25 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $25 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $19 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $14 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $19 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $17 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $16 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $21 6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $36 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $16 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $21 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $19 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.40 · official $91.40 (match) · 37 history records