Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde4e…fac9 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%46W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$23
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$52
other 43% +$24
sports 9% +$28
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +23.8% +12.0% 51% 51% -1.7%
≤30d 87 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 45% -11.1%
≤90d 87 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 45% -11.1%
all 87 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 45% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 45% -11.1%
10% -14.2% 32% -19.6%
15% -22.5% 28% -27.3%
20% -30.1% 24% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses46 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)87 / 92
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +14%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +77%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +34%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +362%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +269%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -87%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +74%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +186%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +199%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +125%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +245%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$20 +196%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$7 +131%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 19h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 31h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 85¢ $9 41h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 45h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 2 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.06 · official $43.06 (match) · 207 history records