trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 17% | 0% | -11.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -3.9% | -13.0% | 17% | 0% | -11.5% |
| all | 26 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 46% | 4% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.8% | 4% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 4% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 4% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 52¢ | 48¢ | $47 | $44 | −$3 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 22 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | Jun 02 | $51 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | May 26 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 25 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $20 | −$6 | -28% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $40 | +$3 | +9% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? | Dec 19 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 18 | $22 | −$2 | -7% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $7 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 14 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Dec 08 | $1 | $0 | -26% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 19 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | Oct 24 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? | Oct 23 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? | Oct 23 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? | Oct 23 | $10 | +$5 | +47% |
| Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 09 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 09 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet between 300 and 319 times September 5–12? | Sep 08 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? | Sep 06 | $7 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Sep 02 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Aug 20 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? | Aug 20 | $21 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Aug 20 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? | Aug 19 | $8 | $0 | +0% |