Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde4f…4ba9 crypto 129 markets active 3d ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37,763 (+403%) realized +$37,763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +146% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +123% what you keep after slip
Net edge+123%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate96%124W / 5L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$9,168
other 18% +$14,046
crypto 12% +$3,495
finance 5% +$5,478
tech 4% +$5,455
weather 1% $0
politics 0% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+122.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 43 +96.2% +77.5% 98% 9% +246.2%
all 129 +146.3% +122.9% 96% 12% +221.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +122.9% 12% +221.1%
10% +101.6% 12% +190.4%
15% +82.1% 12% +162.3%
20% +64.2% 12% +136.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +498% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +146% · $-wt +403% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +175% → late +118% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$349 vs −$1,386 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.81 per $1 lost it wins $7.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37,763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses124 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage172d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 25? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 19? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 6? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 28? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 28? Apr 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 28? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 28? Apr 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 28? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28? Apr 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 28? Apr 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 28? Apr 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 21? Apr 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 14? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 14? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? Apr 13 $335 +$657 +196%
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 12 be greater than 7,00 Apr 13 $44 +$2,044 +4600%
Will Justin Bieber feature The Weeknd during his Coachella performance Apr 13 $1 +$32 +4750%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $22 −$21 -98%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 30 $2 $0 +3%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 30 $2 $0 +8%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 30 $2 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 30 $2 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 30 $5 +$1 +11%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 March 2-8? Mar 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 2-8? Mar 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8? Mar 16 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 12PM ET Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 8? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 2-8? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 8? Mar 15 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 22d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 4°C on May 6? BUY No 100¢ $12 40d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 45d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on April 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or below on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 28? BUY No 99¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 28? BUY No 98¢ $2 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 49d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on April 21? BUY No 99¢ $12 55d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $12 60d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 62d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 62d
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? SELL Yes 38¢ $837 62d
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? SELL Yes 38¢ $156 62d
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 62d
Will Lyft’s total rides in Q1 2026 be above 245m? BUY Yes 13¢ $286 62d
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 12 be greater than 7,00 SELL Yes 94¢ $2,089 62d
Will the number of US flights delayed on April 12 be greater than 7,00 BUY Yes 2¢ $44 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 259 history records